West Pymble MARKET UPDATE JANUARY – MARCH 2023 Courtesy of Thomas Merriman Ray White Upper North Shore
For the current period ‘Week 9-11’ (which is usually the peak listing period) listings are down 27.3% on the same time last year, and 21.3% over the last 5 years. This is important because prices have been slowly easing month on month since the ‘peak’ in March 2022. However in 2023 price drops have all but turned around across the Upper North Shore. Oddly, sellers are delaying their timing to sell as they ‘watch the market’. As they watch, they are starting to feel encouraged as the falling prices seem to have stopped in some areas. However, this is looking like a false economy when we look at the data in context and realise that while listing numbers are down, buyers numbers are up, significantly. Our open home numbers are in the vicinity of 60% higher than the same time last year. A simple economist’s view of supply and demand would make it obvious as to why prices are looking good at the moment as buyers are battling it out on the auction floor for what limited stock there is. The issue will be whether this is an anomaly - a dead cat bounce - in the transition from a peak to trough market or whether it is the beginning of a new market. What I know is that timing the market is a tricky game and very few clients time it perfectly, the perfect timing is ‘at the same time’ when buying and selling. Local market We are seeing more than 80% of our scheduled auctions selling under the hammer and of those a high percentage are selling well in excess of the reserve price. We have had five auctions in two weeks go more than $150,000 over the reserve price. The second half of 2022 was heavily impacted by buyers going cold with the fear of seemingly never-ending interest rate rises, and sellers selfassessing their homes with continued downward trajectory from the peak causing a concave vs convex trend in the data as each party drifted from each other. 2023 has seen buyers come back into the market with adjusted budgets, confident in their borrowing capacity based on information from the RBA that we may see the end of rate rises soon. Further, we have seen sellers for the most part meeting the market with realistic expectations based on comparable and surrounding sales, albeit from a small base. Wider market Sydney house prices have fallen 14.7% over the last 12 months, meaning that a house is, on average, worth 14.7% less in March 2023 than it was in March 2022. However, based on the lower stock levels we saw Sydney property prices increase 0.3% last week and 1% over the past 28 days, firming up earlier commentary about WELCOME TO YOUR MARKET UPDATE So far 2023 has been the slowest start to a selling season we have almost ever seen. RP Data has released national listing figures which are consistent or, if anything, conservative in comparison to the Upper North Shore.
the current supply and demand issues we are experiencing. A lot of people have been asking how the State Election will, if at all, impact property prices. The outcome may not have too much of a direct effect as interest rates are the key driver in the current market. However, Stamp Duty is more of an issue in a state election and the only potential impact we perceive is that the Labor Government said clearly that “if elected, they would abolish the newly implemented First Home Buyer Choice initiative”, which is yet to be seen. The current initiative has given first home buyers, on homes valued up to $1,500,000, the option whether to pay upfront stamp duty or an annual property tax to assist eligible buyers into the market. While this will only impact a small portion of homes in our area, buyers coming into our area are often selling a property to afford to be in this beautiful part of the world, their buyers will be impacted if this changes with no suitable replacement. Interest Rates (RBA): As at 28 March, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures April 2023 contract was trading at 96.41, indicating a 5% expectation of an interest rate decrease to 3.35% at the next RBA board meeting. As per predictions, the cash rate was left at 3.60% giving us the first unchanged rate in over 10 announcements. This unchanged figure will leave most mortgage rates around 5% and up to 8% for fixed rates. This may seem like a good indication for now but the fear is that the market will become extremely reactive to interest rate news meaning that around a rate announcement the market will pause. Further, if a rate rise occurs next month or the month after the market will respond negatively and if unchanged or decrease, positively. This is not good news because a reactive market remains unstable, and this has been the issue for the past 12 months. Finance There is increasing chatter about the ‘mortgage cliff’. Will increased interest rates and mortgages becoming ‘unfixed’ in 2023 impact the market further? There is an expectation that by September up to 80% of mortgages will become unfixed. The good news is that banks like Westpac have said they believe that the RBA will increase the cash rate to 4.10% before providing some relief in 2024 down to 3.85% and holding. Thomas Merriman | 0401 840 859 | thomas.merriman@raywhite.com
FAST FACTS Source: Pricefinder 1 Jan - 31 March 2022 & 1 Jan - 31 March 2023 2. MEDIAN SALE PRICE HOUSE Q1 2023 Q1 2022 WEST PYMBLE $2,592,500 $2,992,500 3. AVERAGE SALE PRICE HOUSE Q1 2023 Q1 2022 WEST PYMBLE $2,486,312 $2,947,206 4. HIGHEST SALE PRICE HOUSE Q1 2023 Q1 2022 WEST PYMBLE $4,500,000 $4,105,000 1. HOUSE Q1 2023 Q1 2022 WEST PYMBLE 16 14 NUMBER OF SALES WEST PYMBLE 61.7% 5. AUCTION CLEARANCE RATE (LAST 6 MONTHS)
RECENT WEST PYMBLE HIGHLIGHT SALES Address Sale Price Sale Date Area sqm Bed Bath Car 7 Hereford Place $2,650,000 31/03/2023 1,031 4 2 1 137a Ryde Road $1,750,000 30/03/2023 1,556 3 2 1 16 Binalong Street $2,861,000 18/03/2023 942 4 2 1 30 Bolwarra Avenue $2,410,000 16/03/2023 873 4 2 1 45 Gloucester Avenue $2,120,000 09/03/2023 911 4 2 2 11 Wallalong Crescent $2,250,000 08/03/2023 696 3 1 1 30 Grayling Road $4,500,000 07/03/2023 1,463 4 2 2 96 Wallalong Crescent Not Disclosed 04/03/2023 829 4 2 2 18 Warrabri Place $3,050,000 04/03/2023 1,138 3 2 2 7 Ramsay Avenue $2,605,000 24/02/2023 930 5 2 2 14 Jugiong Street $3,400,000 24/02/2023 1,242 5 3 2 27 Andrew Avenue $2,805,000 16/02/2023 1,012 4 2 2 4 Yalleroi Avenue $2,800,000 16/02/2023 853 5 3 4 7 Andrew Avenue $2,580,000 11/02/2023 936 5 2 2 11 Dunoon Avenue $1,715,000 11/02/2023 1,157 3 1 1 7 Dunoon Avenue $1,620,000 03/02/2023 1,012 4 2 2 Not all properties listed were sold by Ray White
THOMAS MERRIMAN AGENT OF THE YEAR – WEST PYMBLE Thomas Merriman 0401 840 859 thomas.merriman@raywhite.com 39 Hill Street Roseville NSW 2069 18 Railway Avenue Wahroonga NSW 2076 Shop 2, 237 Mona Vale Road St Ives NSW 2075 raywhiteuppernorthshore.com.au Ray White Upper North Shore Head Office: 2 Turramurra Avenue, Turramurra NSW 2074 45-47 Hunter Street Hornsby NSW 2077 Highly Recommend “Thomas & his team were professional and a pleasure to work with. Their positivity & high energy kept us motivated. Communication was constant & we believe they achieved the best outcome in the current market.” VENDOR - 45 GLOUCESTER AVENUE, WEST PYMBLE Exceptional service “Thomas and his team provided exceptional service and advice not only during the sales campaign but also in the months leading up to the decision to place our family home on the market. We always felt that Thomas was conducting himself with integrity. We appreciated Thomas’s data driven approach and responsive attitude. Thomas, Harriet and Logan are very professional, they always do what they say they are going to do and provide incredible support. It was wonderful to work with such a friendly, caring and reliable team. And get a great result!” VENDOR - 96 WALLALONG CRESCENT, WEST PYMBLE West Pymble
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